منابع مشابه
Are Close Elections Random?∗
Elections with small margins of victory represent an important form of democratic competition and, increasingly, an opportunity for causal inference. When scholars use close elections for examining competition or for causal inference, they impose assumptions about the politics of close contests: campaigns are unable to systematically determine the outcome. This paper calls into question this mo...
متن کاملAre Close Elections Randomly Determined?∗
Elections with small margins of victory represent an important form of electoral competition and, increasingly, an opportunity for causal inference. Scholars using regression discontinuity designs (RDD) have interpreted the winners of close elections as randomly separated from the losers, using marginal election results as an experimental assignment of office-holding to one candidate versus the...
متن کاملRace and the politics of close elections
☆ For their guidance throughout this project, I am gr Goldin, and Lawrence Katz. I also benefitted from helpfu Knight, three anonymous referees, Ruchir Agarwal, Albe Giglio, Anh-Thu Ngo, Thomas Roemer, Heidi Williams Harvard, the Northeastern Political Science Associatio Summer Institute meetings on the Development of th Joseph Gyourko and Fernando Ferreira for kindly sharing data and acknowled...
متن کاملClose Enough for Comfort? The Spatial Structure of Interest and Information in Ballot Measure Elections
This study considers the importance of spatial context in state ballot initiative elections. We argue that spatial context provides important information voters use to decide how to vote on initiatives with geographically-based policy implications. Herein, we analyze tract-level voting on three California Indian Gaming initiatives. The findings indicate that voters located near Indian nations w...
متن کاملThe Surprising Impacts of Unionization on Establishments: Accounting for Selection in Close Union Representation Elections∗
Regression discontinuity studies of the effects of union representation rely on quasi-random variation in vote tallies near the majority-rule threshold. It is precisely in the closest elections, however, that incentives may be most powerful for manipulation. This study shows evidence for such contaminating selection in close union elections. First, unions lost close elections at an unexpectedly...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nature Climate Change
سال: 2008
ISSN: 1758-678X,1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/climate.2008.95